If you want to feel optimistic about India's future, drive down from Karol Bagh to Gurgaon via Ridge Road and NH8. The latter is truly worldclass. Smooth, wide, well-marked with proper exits and entry lanes, it's a pleasure to drive on. True, traffic is fast catching up to make it congested, but let's not quibble over details.
If you want re-assurance that this development is also touching small town India, check out NH1 from Pathankot to Damtal. The former is a small town in North Punjab with a population of 250K, the latter is a tiny hamlet with population in single digit thousands. NH1 between these two towns passes through hilly terrain and the awe that a wide, 6 lane road inspires over mountains is difficult to put in words.
I happened to travel on the above two stretches over this weekend and felt better with the experience.
But if you want to be reminded that in India, the more things change, the more they remain the same, you should exit NH8 and enter Gurgaon. The pothole mosaic that passes off as road is pathetic. Vehicles regularly scream in agony as they navigate the crests and troughs and often break down.
In the same vein, once you pass Damtal on NH1 towards Jalandhar, the road disappears. The potholes here are even more vicious. One vehicle had its axle broken into two on hitting one such death trap. Apparently, contracts have been issued for 4 laning of the road but the contractor is waiting for monsoons to get over. People, meanwhile, are paying the price for the 'soft launch'.
Here's hoping that NH8 transcends to the last mile and NH1 completes its majestic sweep beyond Damtal all the way to Jalandhar. That's when we can truly feel proud.
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
Saturday, July 05, 2008
the right metaphor - clay vs. seed
A couple of years ago, after a highly successful and deeply satisfying summer camp with school children in Dalhousie, I wrote a blog titled 'working with clay'. Having spent the last 9 months in Education in India, I feel the metaphor of children being clay might have been a bit misguided and erroneous.
The notion of a teacher as this all important agent who moulds destinies is misplaced. A human brain is not an empty jug in which you fill knowledge, nor is it an amorphous entity to which you give form.
The idea of a seed comes close to describing a human brain at birth. It carries its code inside - whether it'll be an oak or a grass. A teacher can give it the nutrition or environment to make it the best oak or the best grass it can be. But it is tough for a teacher to turn an oak into grass - if at all she is successful, it will be a very gnarled piece of grass!
This understanding has led me to redefine the role of education. Every child is unique, like a seed that carries its future within. The role of education is to enable the fruition of this potential, not guide a child to the norm of an 'ideal child'.
Now if every child is unique, how can an assembly line methodology work? How will one way of teaching work for everyone? Shouldn't education cater to the unique learning style of each student?
This is not a trivial challenge because school education is driven by syllabus targets and high teacher-student ratio. The focus is on finishing the prescribed teaching modules, testing it by rote based exams and moving the batch forward, to make way for the next one.
We can definitely do better. Technology can play a role. Teacher training will definitely play a role. But most important is to educate parents. To give them the knowledge that their child is unique and they are doing a disservice to her uniqueness if they benchmark her growth by uni-dimensional exam scores.
Over the next few posts, I'll share my experiences of developing an education pedagogy that caters to the needs of the learner, not of the teacher or administrator.
The notion of a teacher as this all important agent who moulds destinies is misplaced. A human brain is not an empty jug in which you fill knowledge, nor is it an amorphous entity to which you give form.
The idea of a seed comes close to describing a human brain at birth. It carries its code inside - whether it'll be an oak or a grass. A teacher can give it the nutrition or environment to make it the best oak or the best grass it can be. But it is tough for a teacher to turn an oak into grass - if at all she is successful, it will be a very gnarled piece of grass!
This understanding has led me to redefine the role of education. Every child is unique, like a seed that carries its future within. The role of education is to enable the fruition of this potential, not guide a child to the norm of an 'ideal child'.
Now if every child is unique, how can an assembly line methodology work? How will one way of teaching work for everyone? Shouldn't education cater to the unique learning style of each student?
This is not a trivial challenge because school education is driven by syllabus targets and high teacher-student ratio. The focus is on finishing the prescribed teaching modules, testing it by rote based exams and moving the batch forward, to make way for the next one.
We can definitely do better. Technology can play a role. Teacher training will definitely play a role. But most important is to educate parents. To give them the knowledge that their child is unique and they are doing a disservice to her uniqueness if they benchmark her growth by uni-dimensional exam scores.
Over the next few posts, I'll share my experiences of developing an education pedagogy that caters to the needs of the learner, not of the teacher or administrator.
Monday, April 28, 2008
The Power of 10
I've realized that it's extremely difficult to bring culture change in an organization. The best a leader can do is NOT underestimate the effort required. That's where the Power of 10 comes in.
Any message, for it to be absorbed and internalized, needs to be repeated at least 10 times. Any lesser and it can easily run off the thick oily layer of habit that most employees carry.
The power of 10 runs against the natural inclination to say something new & different each time you meet your people. Repetition seems boring in a culture of 'what's new?' But habit is the biggest enemy of change and the power of 10 breaks it in small but sure steps.
Any message, for it to be absorbed and internalized, needs to be repeated at least 10 times. Any lesser and it can easily run off the thick oily layer of habit that most employees carry.
The power of 10 runs against the natural inclination to say something new & different each time you meet your people. Repetition seems boring in a culture of 'what's new?' But habit is the biggest enemy of change and the power of 10 breaks it in small but sure steps.
Thursday, January 03, 2008
Beginning of a storm
The New Year incident of a crowd molesting 2 women on Juhu Tara Road hit me like a rock. While the incident itself was enough to cause indignation, what really jolted me was the deeper issue it symptomized.
Over the last few years, I have been reading and hearing about the increasing divide between the haves and the have nots in India. And I have heard people worry that this will cause social unrest and upheaval. But, I have always felt that these concerns were overblown or shallow. There were bigger & deeper issues to deal with such as Infrastructure, Health and Education, which if done well, should take care of these symptoms. And in any case, any mass upheaval was still some decades away, was how I reacted.
Over the past few months however, I'm beginning to see patterns that indicate that the unrest and upheaval is not far. In Mumbai, the great immigrant magnet, you see this more than anywhere else.
The situation is still at a simmering stage but as these two incidents show, it doesn't take much for the lava to burst out:
A college student is driving his Maruti Swift on SV Road, when he accidentally hits a pedestrian who, in typical Mumbai style, is walking through peak traffic using his hand both as a shield and a traffic signal. Where the fault lay was debatable but the response from the crowd was bordering on the maniacal. They pulled out the youngster and proceeded to take out all the frustrations of their unfulfilled life on him.
2 NRI couples make plans to go to J W Marriot for New Year night reveleries which included a performance from Bipasha Basu. Clearly, there are more people who can't get in (the entry ticket was Rs. 11,500) than who could. When the 2 couples leave Marriot and are walking towards Hote Royal, the crowds from Juhu Beach (where else do you get free open space in Mumbai?) start to rile them with lewd comments. In a pure reflex action, one of the lady abuses the crowd. And the 'have-nots' who were smarting from being excluded from the 'high-life' take out their frustration at the women by tearing their clothes & molesting them.
These incidents are repeated in different forms and facets all over Mumbai everyday. Whether it is the laborer peeing at the outer wall of a Bungalow, pedestrians scratching cars while passing them by or the blank stares of a beggar at a traffic junction, deprived India snarls at rich India every second.
And where the underlying frustration doesnt find vent, it simmers as apathy or antipathy. Everyday, poor immigrants disembark from Patna express at VT and start their battle for survival. Everyday, a rich spoilt kid leaves his half-finished breakfast, goes down the lift and orders his driver to take him to a Multiplex in his Toyota. And the poor Bihari and the rich Marwari share the same road and air. If the Bihari's dreams are not realized, the situation is ripe for a nightmare on our streets.
Over the last few years, I have been reading and hearing about the increasing divide between the haves and the have nots in India. And I have heard people worry that this will cause social unrest and upheaval. But, I have always felt that these concerns were overblown or shallow. There were bigger & deeper issues to deal with such as Infrastructure, Health and Education, which if done well, should take care of these symptoms. And in any case, any mass upheaval was still some decades away, was how I reacted.
Over the past few months however, I'm beginning to see patterns that indicate that the unrest and upheaval is not far. In Mumbai, the great immigrant magnet, you see this more than anywhere else.
The situation is still at a simmering stage but as these two incidents show, it doesn't take much for the lava to burst out:
A college student is driving his Maruti Swift on SV Road, when he accidentally hits a pedestrian who, in typical Mumbai style, is walking through peak traffic using his hand both as a shield and a traffic signal. Where the fault lay was debatable but the response from the crowd was bordering on the maniacal. They pulled out the youngster and proceeded to take out all the frustrations of their unfulfilled life on him.
2 NRI couples make plans to go to J W Marriot for New Year night reveleries which included a performance from Bipasha Basu. Clearly, there are more people who can't get in (the entry ticket was Rs. 11,500) than who could. When the 2 couples leave Marriot and are walking towards Hote Royal, the crowds from Juhu Beach (where else do you get free open space in Mumbai?) start to rile them with lewd comments. In a pure reflex action, one of the lady abuses the crowd. And the 'have-nots' who were smarting from being excluded from the 'high-life' take out their frustration at the women by tearing their clothes & molesting them.
These incidents are repeated in different forms and facets all over Mumbai everyday. Whether it is the laborer peeing at the outer wall of a Bungalow, pedestrians scratching cars while passing them by or the blank stares of a beggar at a traffic junction, deprived India snarls at rich India every second.
And where the underlying frustration doesnt find vent, it simmers as apathy or antipathy. Everyday, poor immigrants disembark from Patna express at VT and start their battle for survival. Everyday, a rich spoilt kid leaves his half-finished breakfast, goes down the lift and orders his driver to take him to a Multiplex in his Toyota. And the poor Bihari and the rich Marwari share the same road and air. If the Bihari's dreams are not realized, the situation is ripe for a nightmare on our streets.
Thursday, December 27, 2007
Every Child is Unique
Taare Zameen Par is a much needed breath of fresh air for the effete and constrained school environment in India. Although it might pass off as the story of a dyslexic child gaining recognition for his unique talent, the story is a commentary on us as parents, teachers and school administrators
Parents
I'm increasingly getting convinced that what India needs the most to improve its Human Capital is not better schools, or more universities but Parent Counseling. We, as parents operate from centuries old myths, stereotypes and misinformation. And the root cause seems to be the quest for the 'Ideal Child'. And the Ideal Child is defined primarily in terms of Verbal and Logic/Math capability. Guests check whether the child can count or read the alphabet. Parents want to teach their children the 'a,b,c' and the '1,2,3'. Schools test for 'A for apple' and 'count till 20'.
There is a need to redefine the 'Ideal Child'. Better still, we need to shed the notion of the 'Ideal Child'. Each child is unique. Some can read well. Some can count well. Some can draw well. Some can relate well. Some can imagine well. Some can model well. Some can sing well. Howard Gardner calls them Multiple Intelligences. And there are 7 of them. Each child has a grain of these intelligences but is overdeveloped on some and underdeveloped on others. Society needs each intelligence but parents tend to over-value language and maths acquisition more than other intelligences. This needs to change and Parent Counseling can play a massive role in this area.
I feel that embracing the philosophy of Multiple Intelligences will allow parents to respect their child's capability in whichever sphere it exists. It'll save children from the pressure and stress of being judged on limited and misplaced criteria
Teachers
Teaching in India is crying for Talent. Teaching is the last resort of the failed, clueless or in the case of women, the married. There are umpteenth reasons for it. Low salaries are the primary quoted reason. The absence of role models and their celebration is another big one in my pov. In a world, where a Mittal, a Modi, a Bedi, a Dhoni or a Khan are touted as 'Indian of the Year', where will young impressionable minds get the inspiration to become great teachers??
Even those who join the profession with the right intent are benumbed by the old and defunct 'BEd' course. Here, the vicious cycle of bad teachers creating worse ones manifests itself with age old paradigms on Human Development, Child Psychology and Cognition getting perpetuated and new research and learning remaining in Research Labs and books.
Once these teachers enter schools, they start the process of dousing any ambers of curiosity in the child with their inane, 'fingers on your lips', 'get out of the class' and 'Amit, you read the first paragraph and others repeat' routines. Teaching is one profession where there is little to no refreshing of skills and knowledge. Teachers use methodologies that existed when they went to school and sadly, all the modern developments and learnings on human cognition by-pass them.
I haven't yet touched the plight of government schools where teacher absenteeism exacerbates all the above issues (Although you can argue that a bad teacher can do more harm than no teacher at all!!)
I feel that New Age Schools run by the Private Sector can play a role in attracting talent to this profession. The Private Sector can also contribute in the area of teacher training if the right incentives for skill upgradation are provided. Technology can play a big part in this area by carrying centralized content to far off areas. If the Govt. pitches in by revoking the senseless Not for Profit Trust requirement for schools and Media plays its part in celebrating Teaching as a profession of nation builders, much can be achieved.
School Administrators
School administrators play a huge role in the area of teacher-student ratio, teacher recruitment & training. I'm a big supporter of inclusive education - every child has the right to learn. And every child can learn, as long as schools accept this as their responsibility and make provisions for the different intelligences exhibited by different students. If students learn in different ways, schools have to make the extra effort and investment in teaching in different ways.
This is possible only if the right teacher student ratio is maintained to allow individual differences in intelligences to be identified. Classroom design will need to follow to enable child centric methodologies vs. creating pulpits for sermons.
Taare Zameen Par touches on all of these in subtle ways. Whether it is the father who misses his child's uniqueness in his pursuit for the 'Ideal Child' or the teachers who perpetuate rote learning or the school principal who struggles with the dilemma of efficiency of administration vs. focus on each child - the movie portrays issues dogging education today.
Credit should go to the scriptwriter for a great story. Darshil has performed his role with amazing finesse for his age. And Aamir, the director, has resisted the usual producer-actor-director urge to focus on himself, thus allowing the movie to focus on the theme vs. the star.
Parents
I'm increasingly getting convinced that what India needs the most to improve its Human Capital is not better schools, or more universities but Parent Counseling. We, as parents operate from centuries old myths, stereotypes and misinformation. And the root cause seems to be the quest for the 'Ideal Child'. And the Ideal Child is defined primarily in terms of Verbal and Logic/Math capability. Guests check whether the child can count or read the alphabet. Parents want to teach their children the 'a,b,c' and the '1,2,3'. Schools test for 'A for apple' and 'count till 20'.
There is a need to redefine the 'Ideal Child'. Better still, we need to shed the notion of the 'Ideal Child'. Each child is unique. Some can read well. Some can count well. Some can draw well. Some can relate well. Some can imagine well. Some can model well. Some can sing well. Howard Gardner calls them Multiple Intelligences. And there are 7 of them. Each child has a grain of these intelligences but is overdeveloped on some and underdeveloped on others. Society needs each intelligence but parents tend to over-value language and maths acquisition more than other intelligences. This needs to change and Parent Counseling can play a massive role in this area.
I feel that embracing the philosophy of Multiple Intelligences will allow parents to respect their child's capability in whichever sphere it exists. It'll save children from the pressure and stress of being judged on limited and misplaced criteria
Teachers
Teaching in India is crying for Talent. Teaching is the last resort of the failed, clueless or in the case of women, the married. There are umpteenth reasons for it. Low salaries are the primary quoted reason. The absence of role models and their celebration is another big one in my pov. In a world, where a Mittal, a Modi, a Bedi, a Dhoni or a Khan are touted as 'Indian of the Year', where will young impressionable minds get the inspiration to become great teachers??
Even those who join the profession with the right intent are benumbed by the old and defunct 'BEd' course. Here, the vicious cycle of bad teachers creating worse ones manifests itself with age old paradigms on Human Development, Child Psychology and Cognition getting perpetuated and new research and learning remaining in Research Labs and books.
Once these teachers enter schools, they start the process of dousing any ambers of curiosity in the child with their inane, 'fingers on your lips', 'get out of the class' and 'Amit, you read the first paragraph and others repeat' routines. Teaching is one profession where there is little to no refreshing of skills and knowledge. Teachers use methodologies that existed when they went to school and sadly, all the modern developments and learnings on human cognition by-pass them.
I haven't yet touched the plight of government schools where teacher absenteeism exacerbates all the above issues (Although you can argue that a bad teacher can do more harm than no teacher at all!!)
I feel that New Age Schools run by the Private Sector can play a role in attracting talent to this profession. The Private Sector can also contribute in the area of teacher training if the right incentives for skill upgradation are provided. Technology can play a big part in this area by carrying centralized content to far off areas. If the Govt. pitches in by revoking the senseless Not for Profit Trust requirement for schools and Media plays its part in celebrating Teaching as a profession of nation builders, much can be achieved.
School Administrators
School administrators play a huge role in the area of teacher-student ratio, teacher recruitment & training. I'm a big supporter of inclusive education - every child has the right to learn. And every child can learn, as long as schools accept this as their responsibility and make provisions for the different intelligences exhibited by different students. If students learn in different ways, schools have to make the extra effort and investment in teaching in different ways.
This is possible only if the right teacher student ratio is maintained to allow individual differences in intelligences to be identified. Classroom design will need to follow to enable child centric methodologies vs. creating pulpits for sermons.
Taare Zameen Par touches on all of these in subtle ways. Whether it is the father who misses his child's uniqueness in his pursuit for the 'Ideal Child' or the teachers who perpetuate rote learning or the school principal who struggles with the dilemma of efficiency of administration vs. focus on each child - the movie portrays issues dogging education today.
Credit should go to the scriptwriter for a great story. Darshil has performed his role with amazing finesse for his age. And Aamir, the director, has resisted the usual producer-actor-director urge to focus on himself, thus allowing the movie to focus on the theme vs. the star.
Tuesday, October 30, 2007
Insecure Leaders
Leadership, in my view, is all about creating a vision of what's possible and then creating conditions for your people to achieve it. There are tomes written on the art, craft and science of Leadership and I don't pretend to better this body of knowledge. What I do want to talk about is the pernicious effects of an Insecure Leader on the organization.
I believe that an Insecure Leader not only limits the distance a company can cover, he also vitiates the journey. And on this tedious, long and slow trek, he stunts his people's growth. Taken together it's a grim scenario.
An Insecure Leader believes that he knows best. Convinced in his omnipotence, he retains all decision making with him. He believes that there is 'one best way' to drive business and he knows it. And he limits his organization's potential by this outlook and his capacity. If everything has to be routed through one person, there are bound to be bottlenecks. If the process to achieve outcomes is mandated, people's inherent diversity is insulted. And although ideas often emanate from an individual flash of brilliance, they grow & develop through open discussion. An Insecure Leader prevents this democratic mutation from genesis to maturity.
Organizations that are stuck with Insecure Leaders do not go far. Because their potential is limited by his life span.
I believe that an Insecure Leader not only limits the distance a company can cover, he also vitiates the journey. And on this tedious, long and slow trek, he stunts his people's growth. Taken together it's a grim scenario.
An Insecure Leader believes that he knows best. Convinced in his omnipotence, he retains all decision making with him. He believes that there is 'one best way' to drive business and he knows it. And he limits his organization's potential by this outlook and his capacity. If everything has to be routed through one person, there are bound to be bottlenecks. If the process to achieve outcomes is mandated, people's inherent diversity is insulted. And although ideas often emanate from an individual flash of brilliance, they grow & develop through open discussion. An Insecure Leader prevents this democratic mutation from genesis to maturity.
People working under an Insecure Leader do not develop, unless you count learning what not to do, as important learning (which it is, but then learning by inversion is hardly fun). He doesn't invest in developing people because he fears that he'll lose his edge if he teaches them his insights. What's more he wants people to just execute his ideas, and hires people who are 'coordinators' and 'executives' and keeps them that way. There is no need to invest in developing people, since they are inherently dispensable.
It's in the culture and environment that an Insecure Leader has the worst effect. He promotes confusion and mistrust by keeping the complete picture in his mind and revealing bits and pieces to his people. He believes that fundamentally, people are out there to deceive & shirk and he has to control & police to get results. All authorization and approval rests with him. There are tonnes of unneccessary checks and counter-checks. And in the end, everyone is busy filling out forms, getting signatures leaving little time for growing the business.
Organizations that are stuck with Insecure Leaders do not go far. Because their potential is limited by his life span.
Monday, October 15, 2007
The Last Meter
If you haven't witnessed the Last Meter you have either never driven on Indian roads or you are visually impaired. Since you're reading this, I suspect it's the former.
The Last Meter is the space that is occupied by vehicles that can't discipline themselves to stop when the light turns yellow but are too slow to cross the junction. They stay in the common junction area butting out of their end of the road and creating a bottleneck for vehicles coming from the right.
The Last Meter is the single biggest reason for traffic anarchy on Indian roads. It is also the most infuriating. Why it happens is a matter of conjecture. I'll take a shot at explaining it and invite you to add your two bits.
One reason could be genuine. While the 18 year old strapping stud might think he has the energy to beat the signal before it turns red, the 20 year old Maruti 800 that he's saddled with, simply doesn't oblige. Too slow to cross and too late to stop, it kind of ends up hanging in the middle. It can't go back unless it wants to maim the street urchin selling strawberries. It can't go forward or the guy coming from the right will jump out of his car and do what he's currently threatening to!
The second reason is Auto rickshaws. These are cockroaches of the road. Their ethic is that it's not important where the body is, it's enough to just jut in their snout. The snout of the auto rickshaw has higher legal claim on space than the handkerchief of a Mumbai local traveller. And the Auto rickshaw-wallahs are genuinely illiterate. Chaos is their culture. Order is anathema. Every other vehicle on the road is the enemy. It's a war out there and they are trying to secure all the trenches.
The third is the absence of roads themselves. If you don't know where it ends, you don't know that you're in the Last Meter. You might delude yourself into thinking that you are doing no wrong, that the guy coming from the right is in fact maliciously coming straight at you - you are just waiting for the signal to turn green! 'Why is he making those angry gestures' you might wonder! There is no white line to signal start of the junction, no lane for pedestrians to cross at the junction - no wonder traffic is Darwinian in its mood and method.
Lastly, I wonder whether people even know that they are creating the Last Meter. Or are they just thinking of escaping the hell that's Mumbai roads vs. worrying about the hell that they are creating. What's more, even if they were well meaning, do they know what the right way is? At a time, when driving license is a matter of Rs. 500 and a contact, who even knows traffic rules. In fact it's a wonder that people stop at all at a red signal. It won't be unimaginable for them to run at red like raging bulls - in fact some actually do that!
The Last Meter is symptomatic of India. There are no clear boundaries and no clear rules. Everything is negotiable - from the traffic signal to the traffic cop. Well, if the Nuke deal can comfortably rest on the Last Meter, how can you blame the poor guy with the Maruti 800?!
The Last Meter is the space that is occupied by vehicles that can't discipline themselves to stop when the light turns yellow but are too slow to cross the junction. They stay in the common junction area butting out of their end of the road and creating a bottleneck for vehicles coming from the right.
The Last Meter is the single biggest reason for traffic anarchy on Indian roads. It is also the most infuriating. Why it happens is a matter of conjecture. I'll take a shot at explaining it and invite you to add your two bits.
One reason could be genuine. While the 18 year old strapping stud might think he has the energy to beat the signal before it turns red, the 20 year old Maruti 800 that he's saddled with, simply doesn't oblige. Too slow to cross and too late to stop, it kind of ends up hanging in the middle. It can't go back unless it wants to maim the street urchin selling strawberries. It can't go forward or the guy coming from the right will jump out of his car and do what he's currently threatening to!
The second reason is Auto rickshaws. These are cockroaches of the road. Their ethic is that it's not important where the body is, it's enough to just jut in their snout. The snout of the auto rickshaw has higher legal claim on space than the handkerchief of a Mumbai local traveller. And the Auto rickshaw-wallahs are genuinely illiterate. Chaos is their culture. Order is anathema. Every other vehicle on the road is the enemy. It's a war out there and they are trying to secure all the trenches.
The third is the absence of roads themselves. If you don't know where it ends, you don't know that you're in the Last Meter. You might delude yourself into thinking that you are doing no wrong, that the guy coming from the right is in fact maliciously coming straight at you - you are just waiting for the signal to turn green! 'Why is he making those angry gestures' you might wonder! There is no white line to signal start of the junction, no lane for pedestrians to cross at the junction - no wonder traffic is Darwinian in its mood and method.
Lastly, I wonder whether people even know that they are creating the Last Meter. Or are they just thinking of escaping the hell that's Mumbai roads vs. worrying about the hell that they are creating. What's more, even if they were well meaning, do they know what the right way is? At a time, when driving license is a matter of Rs. 500 and a contact, who even knows traffic rules. In fact it's a wonder that people stop at all at a red signal. It won't be unimaginable for them to run at red like raging bulls - in fact some actually do that!
The Last Meter is symptomatic of India. There are no clear boundaries and no clear rules. Everything is negotiable - from the traffic signal to the traffic cop. Well, if the Nuke deal can comfortably rest on the Last Meter, how can you blame the poor guy with the Maruti 800?!
Wednesday, October 03, 2007
Temptation
From the time I set foot in India, I have been tempted to record my experiences. The title of 'Diary of a returning NRI' sounded interesting and appealing.
I'm resisting the urge.
Writing being the cathartic instrument that it is, might trap me into complaining about events, people and places that assault the senses. And it'll be too easy to lose the big picture.
Writing being the selective exercise that it is, amplifies the extremes. Add that to my resident cynicism and what you get is an exaggerated version of the negatives.
Too often, we start believing what we write, not writing what we believe.
As far as India is concerned, I want to hold on to my belief about its future and my passion for its present. The Diary of a returning NRI will be written by someone else or it'll come in version 2 - with the benefit of retrospect.
I'm resisting the urge.
Writing being the cathartic instrument that it is, might trap me into complaining about events, people and places that assault the senses. And it'll be too easy to lose the big picture.
Writing being the selective exercise that it is, amplifies the extremes. Add that to my resident cynicism and what you get is an exaggerated version of the negatives.
Too often, we start believing what we write, not writing what we believe.
As far as India is concerned, I want to hold on to my belief about its future and my passion for its present. The Diary of a returning NRI will be written by someone else or it'll come in version 2 - with the benefit of retrospect.
Saturday, September 29, 2007
Recounting History
I've often thought that accounts of events should always be written in 2 versions.
One, the immediate, visceral, raw account of things as they happen. Capturing it fresh prevents rationalization and perspective from setting in and spoiling the true experience. It's like plucking fruits off a tree and munching on them atop the branches. The writer is just a medium in this case. Transmission loss is minimal and the reader can afford to transport herself to the event. The only biases induced are that of the writer's eyes - different people focus on different elements of a canvas - and of his language - not everyone can write like Michael Palin.
Second, the thought through account which finds meaning, pattern and motives in events through a retrospective lens. This allows the author to add his bit. It's like eating a fruit jam where the processing, sugar and preservatives enhance (or distort) the original taste of the fruit. The writer is not just a medium but also the filter. He chooses what to amplify, what to ignore, what to dissect, what to connect. The only truth is the event - no one can dispute it's occurrence - but your account will bear little resemblance to another account of the same event.
Both versions are important. The difference is that of emphasis. One is the truth and little else. The other a reflection of the author's intellect with the event just providing the spring board. The reader is better off in either case as long as she realizes the difference and digests accordingly.
One, the immediate, visceral, raw account of things as they happen. Capturing it fresh prevents rationalization and perspective from setting in and spoiling the true experience. It's like plucking fruits off a tree and munching on them atop the branches. The writer is just a medium in this case. Transmission loss is minimal and the reader can afford to transport herself to the event. The only biases induced are that of the writer's eyes - different people focus on different elements of a canvas - and of his language - not everyone can write like Michael Palin.
Second, the thought through account which finds meaning, pattern and motives in events through a retrospective lens. This allows the author to add his bit. It's like eating a fruit jam where the processing, sugar and preservatives enhance (or distort) the original taste of the fruit. The writer is not just a medium but also the filter. He chooses what to amplify, what to ignore, what to dissect, what to connect. The only truth is the event - no one can dispute it's occurrence - but your account will bear little resemblance to another account of the same event.
Both versions are important. The difference is that of emphasis. One is the truth and little else. The other a reflection of the author's intellect with the event just providing the spring board. The reader is better off in either case as long as she realizes the difference and digests accordingly.
Wednesday, September 26, 2007
Parting Notes for a small island
From an island of order to a subcontinent of chaos is a long flight. As I countdown the last 24 hours of my stay in Singapore, I'm overwhelmed by nostalgia.
Singapore has changed from the one I saw when we first moved here in 2001. The most conspicuous is the choice in terms of cab companies. From the duopoly of Comfort and Tibs, now there are more than my brain can remember. The second is the construction boom. From the pits of the housing market in 2000, everywhere you see cranes and workers building nests for the 6.5 million residents expected in the next 8 years & the millions who'll flock to the IRs. The skyline has changed too - the Singapore flyer being a nice rotund addition to the skyscrapers at Shenton Way. The profile of people on the street is different. There are a lot more white collar Indians on Orchard Road now. The airport is bigger, more varied - with the imaginatively named Budget Terminal already operational and T3 coming up. Singapore Airlines has its own budget airlines. The North East railway line is on, making it easier to get to Mustafa & Clarke Quay. The 2nd Link is operational, offering an alternative to the clogged Woodlands checkpoint. Lee Hsien Loong is the Prime Minister of Singapore, relieving Goh Chok from his interim role. The NKF scandal is a scar on the public memory.
In spite of the change, Singapore in it's basic fabric is still the same - watchful, controlled, small. The PAP still rules unchallenged. The Strait Times still toes the official line. Dissenters are often prosecuted under spurious 'defamation' lawsuits. You still can't chew gum. Public debate is still shaped by ERP, GST and COE rates. HDB's are still the housing mainstay in spite of the proliferation of high-end condos. Chinese rule, Malays are still 2nd best. Racism still exists - the White man gets away with a lot and the brown man runs up against prejudices.
The constancy is not all regressive. Singapore still retains it's ability to look ahead - if not in political terms, at least in economic development terms. Whether it's the ability of SGX to emerge as a regional exchange of some weight, or Singapore port's attempt to become a maritime hub or the EDB's efforts in developing Singapore's bio-technology industry - they are all a part of Singapore's continual effort to prepare for the future. This is one lesson other nations and even companies should learn.
India offers many contrasts. I will not dwell on them. I'm excited by it's possibilities and am steeling myself for the challenges. I'm promising myself not to be affected by the inevitable delays & tardiness in services. And I will not make the mistake of comparing the two countries. I've signed up for a roller coaster ride atop the world's most exciting juggernaut and I'm going to enjoy it.
Adieu Singapore, Namaste India!
Singapore has changed from the one I saw when we first moved here in 2001. The most conspicuous is the choice in terms of cab companies. From the duopoly of Comfort and Tibs, now there are more than my brain can remember. The second is the construction boom. From the pits of the housing market in 2000, everywhere you see cranes and workers building nests for the 6.5 million residents expected in the next 8 years & the millions who'll flock to the IRs. The skyline has changed too - the Singapore flyer being a nice rotund addition to the skyscrapers at Shenton Way. The profile of people on the street is different. There are a lot more white collar Indians on Orchard Road now. The airport is bigger, more varied - with the imaginatively named Budget Terminal already operational and T3 coming up. Singapore Airlines has its own budget airlines. The North East railway line is on, making it easier to get to Mustafa & Clarke Quay. The 2nd Link is operational, offering an alternative to the clogged Woodlands checkpoint. Lee Hsien Loong is the Prime Minister of Singapore, relieving Goh Chok from his interim role. The NKF scandal is a scar on the public memory.
In spite of the change, Singapore in it's basic fabric is still the same - watchful, controlled, small. The PAP still rules unchallenged. The Strait Times still toes the official line. Dissenters are often prosecuted under spurious 'defamation' lawsuits. You still can't chew gum. Public debate is still shaped by ERP, GST and COE rates. HDB's are still the housing mainstay in spite of the proliferation of high-end condos. Chinese rule, Malays are still 2nd best. Racism still exists - the White man gets away with a lot and the brown man runs up against prejudices.
The constancy is not all regressive. Singapore still retains it's ability to look ahead - if not in political terms, at least in economic development terms. Whether it's the ability of SGX to emerge as a regional exchange of some weight, or Singapore port's attempt to become a maritime hub or the EDB's efforts in developing Singapore's bio-technology industry - they are all a part of Singapore's continual effort to prepare for the future. This is one lesson other nations and even companies should learn.
India offers many contrasts. I will not dwell on them. I'm excited by it's possibilities and am steeling myself for the challenges. I'm promising myself not to be affected by the inevitable delays & tardiness in services. And I will not make the mistake of comparing the two countries. I've signed up for a roller coaster ride atop the world's most exciting juggernaut and I'm going to enjoy it.
Adieu Singapore, Namaste India!
Wednesday, September 19, 2007
Watching my brain
I've been wondering these past days at how human beings believe their world is deterministic when it is much more random. How we ascribe motives and skills to retrospective evaluation of success when it could just be a matter of chance. How such explanations lull us into a false sense of 'expertise'. How we see patterns, not because they are there, but because our brain craves for order. How we want to believe we make rational decision when in reality we are a slave of our emotions. How our brain is playing with us.
It's tough to separate yourself from your brain and watch how it fools you. But if you can - and I don't profess any particular skill at this - it makes for a fascinating spectacle. Remember your last meeting with a stranger? At the first glimpse, your brain starts trying to slot her. Tall, thin, fair - everything goes into creating an 'expected' personality. Audio and tactile cues add on and 3 minutes into the interaction, you either like the person, dislike her or couldn't care less. Anything post that is rationalization or amplitude variation on the already chosen scale.
By definition, each one of us is unique. And we are exposed to unique and almost infinite stimuli everyday. But our brain filters and fits. It has to, else it will be paralysed in processing everything.
Language, by itself, is an elaborate approximation tool to help us come to grips with the massive variation in emotion, thought and sight in this world. Our brain fits our unique sensation to an approximate available word : its 'fit' process working all the time!
How we make decisions is another example. If we were to make perfectly rational decisions, we wouldn't even be able to decide which side of the bed to get up from. That's where reflex, heuristics and 'rules of thumb' come in play. And almost always, we are driven by our emotions rather than our thinking. I know of a friend who had a 5 point scale on 10 attributes when he was meeting girls in the elaborate charade of arranged marriage. He just couldn't decide. Not only were there more combinations than he could handle, there were some 'things' (I suspect these were emotions) which were not on his list! Finally, after meeting some 20 girls, he gave up and married someone far from all points and attributes. They are a happy couple now.
Religion, especially monotheistic also pander to the brain's need for order. The notion that there is an absolute truth and one right path to reach it, is highly attractive. It takes away the ambiguity and decision making effort embedded in polytheism.
This is a fascinating journey. Realising that we are governed by our emotions and not our rationality is intriguing. Recognizing instances where our brain's need for order and fit, overrides a pursuit for what's right is amusing. And seeing that there is a lot more randomness driving events around us is comforting as it halts us in our endeavor to ascribe motives and causes to everything.
You might be wondering where I'm going with this. There are 3 implications of such thoughts in my mind:
One, recognizing that our brain will force us into stereotypes, profiling and prejudices is the first step to maintain a secular, non-judgemental outlook towards life, people and events.
Second, recognizing that there is a lot more randomness around us and resisting the urge to accord causality to coincidental events, will ensure that we do not fall into the trap of believing that we have 'THE ANSWER'. This belief can prevent us from being open to alternative scenarios, leading to rigidity.
Third, it impacts how we teach our children. Currently, knowledge is imparted in axioms and absolute truths while a better approach would be to present it as the 'current best'. The history of science reveals how knowledge itself progressed through trial and error vs. an unrelenting pursuit towards an absolute truth.
I'm no expert on this matter - far from it. I don't even know whether what I wrote is true. All I know is that this is an alternative reality. And all I commit to, is to learn more. Not to find the ultimate truth but to uncover lies that are accepted wisdom today.
It's tough to separate yourself from your brain and watch how it fools you. But if you can - and I don't profess any particular skill at this - it makes for a fascinating spectacle. Remember your last meeting with a stranger? At the first glimpse, your brain starts trying to slot her. Tall, thin, fair - everything goes into creating an 'expected' personality. Audio and tactile cues add on and 3 minutes into the interaction, you either like the person, dislike her or couldn't care less. Anything post that is rationalization or amplitude variation on the already chosen scale.
By definition, each one of us is unique. And we are exposed to unique and almost infinite stimuli everyday. But our brain filters and fits. It has to, else it will be paralysed in processing everything.
Language, by itself, is an elaborate approximation tool to help us come to grips with the massive variation in emotion, thought and sight in this world. Our brain fits our unique sensation to an approximate available word : its 'fit' process working all the time!
How we make decisions is another example. If we were to make perfectly rational decisions, we wouldn't even be able to decide which side of the bed to get up from. That's where reflex, heuristics and 'rules of thumb' come in play. And almost always, we are driven by our emotions rather than our thinking. I know of a friend who had a 5 point scale on 10 attributes when he was meeting girls in the elaborate charade of arranged marriage. He just couldn't decide. Not only were there more combinations than he could handle, there were some 'things' (I suspect these were emotions) which were not on his list! Finally, after meeting some 20 girls, he gave up and married someone far from all points and attributes. They are a happy couple now.
Religion, especially monotheistic also pander to the brain's need for order. The notion that there is an absolute truth and one right path to reach it, is highly attractive. It takes away the ambiguity and decision making effort embedded in polytheism.
This is a fascinating journey. Realising that we are governed by our emotions and not our rationality is intriguing. Recognizing instances where our brain's need for order and fit, overrides a pursuit for what's right is amusing. And seeing that there is a lot more randomness driving events around us is comforting as it halts us in our endeavor to ascribe motives and causes to everything.
You might be wondering where I'm going with this. There are 3 implications of such thoughts in my mind:
One, recognizing that our brain will force us into stereotypes, profiling and prejudices is the first step to maintain a secular, non-judgemental outlook towards life, people and events.
Second, recognizing that there is a lot more randomness around us and resisting the urge to accord causality to coincidental events, will ensure that we do not fall into the trap of believing that we have 'THE ANSWER'. This belief can prevent us from being open to alternative scenarios, leading to rigidity.
Third, it impacts how we teach our children. Currently, knowledge is imparted in axioms and absolute truths while a better approach would be to present it as the 'current best'. The history of science reveals how knowledge itself progressed through trial and error vs. an unrelenting pursuit towards an absolute truth.
I'm no expert on this matter - far from it. I don't even know whether what I wrote is true. All I know is that this is an alternative reality. And all I commit to, is to learn more. Not to find the ultimate truth but to uncover lies that are accepted wisdom today.
Wednesday, September 12, 2007
Essential Reading for Managers
As a manager you don't do much yourself. You rely on your people to perform in order to deliver your organization's goals. first, break all the rules can help you excel in this endeavor.
It's a provocatively titled book but its message is simple and intuitive - Recruit for Talent and Manage by Exception. It prepares a new manager against common pitfalls in managing people and offers an old hand a chance for reflection.
For me, the highlights of this book were in 2 areas -
One, the guidance to recruit for talent. In this, the authors are guided by the belief that underlying talents are unalterable for adults. Therefore, a careful calibration of the role and the talents required for it, should precede any recruitment. And the recruitment itself should be guided more by talent than by experience or grades. Skills and knowledge can be taught, not talent.
Two, the guidance to measure for outcomes, not for process. In P&G, we used to call this accomplishment vs. activity. Focusing on outcomes is liberating for both the manager and the employee since it allows for the individuality of the employee in achieving the outcome yet keeps him focused on what's ultimately important for the organization.
There were also some great nuggets on 'How to manage around a weakness' and 'Spending time with your best people'.
The power of reading ultimately is in the opportunity to reflect and resolve. This book forced me to think about each of the 9 people I have managed till date and ponder over my errors of omission and commission. I caught myself nodding when I recalled instances similar to experiences of great managers. I caught myself wincing when mistakes of average managers looked dangerously familiar. I calibrated myself on the 4 keys of great managers and mentally matched my people to the talent descriptions. More importantly, I made some resolutions towards the future.
If you are going to manage people, this book is recommended reading. If you're already managing people, this book is doubly useful - a kind of course corrector - since you can relate better to the examples.
Lastly, a word about its title - it's a niggle but one that grates on my nerves. The title is unnecessary sensationalist. It is misleading. The book's not as much about breaking rules of management as it is about finding what makes great managers excel. Breaking rules is not the guiding force for great managers; it's the belief that talent is unalterable and people are different. (Mis)guided by this (probably) marketing spin on the underlying thesis, the authors spend a lot of time in quoting prevailing behaviors of average managers as resident Management wisdom . This creates a sense of artificial tension when it could just be a comparison between average managers and great managers. There are no real rules that we need to break here!
I mention this only to manage the reader's expectation. Do not expect a revolutionary, new theory of managing people. Do not expect great revelations about how existing Management paradigms are all wrong. Instead, be prepared for common sense, brass tracks wisdom gleaned from great managers around the world.
Don't let the dissonance between content and cover detract from the fact that this great reading for any manager.
Tuesday, September 11, 2007
A wake up call
An Inconvenient Truth is aptly titled.
If you wonder what's all the fuss about or worse, if you've never heard the term 'Global Warming', please watch this DVD.
If you're one of those fence sitters who are not sure whether it really is an issue, whether it's just cyclical weather phenomenon or whether the Greens are making a mountain out of a mole hill, this might help you understand the reason behind your ambivalence.
If you know that global warming is an issue, but haven't figured out what to do, this DVD will not only raise a sense of urgency but in closing, will provide some clues on taking action.
I believe that this DVD should be mandatory watching for everyone. Because the topic under discussion is not some woolly headed 'self-help' mantra, or an esoteric scientific theory - it's the fundamental question of our survival as a species, or more accurately, the survival of Planet Earth as we know it.
There are 2 areas where Al Gore and David Guggenheim do a great job. One, Gore adds romance and drama to the issue by running a sub text of his personal journey to becoming an advocate against global warming. This sub text runs through his childhood, his failed bid for presidency and the loss of his sister to lung cancer (made poignant by the fact that his dad ran a tobacco farm). This not only reveals and clarifies his motive for the viewer but also makes for a empathetic connection.
Second, it makes the science and data behind the case against Global Warming accessible to the common man. The data on temperatures back to 650,000 years from Antarctic drilling and CO2 emissions by-country are quite eye opening. The graphics on ocean currents and their distribution of heat energy is simple and instructive. The DVD packs such data, graphics and Gore's glib talking style in a potent combination to make it easy for the layman to understand the issue at hand.
Discussions on Global Warming are typically split into 2 camps - the Skeptics who wonder whether the effort required is really worth it, whether we aren't exaggerating the impact and the Radicals who are against anything that exhales CO2, who take the matter to a stifling extreme. Gore, though clearly leftist and green in hue, is a bit more balanced in his presentation of the issue and his stance on the solutions.
This DVD should spur you into action. It will force you to think. Pick it up & watch it. You owe it your future.
Saturday, September 08, 2007
Neither foolish nor random
If you haven't read Fooled by Randomness, make it a priority. It has to rank as one of my Top 5 non-fiction.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb has an acerbic wit, sharp intellect and sound knowledge. Staying true to the book's argument, I wouldn't ascribe causality between these traits and the book's contents. However, while reading, I often caught myself wondering about the size of brain behind the weight of words.
The fundamental thesis presented in the book is that we consistently underrate and understate the role of luck and randomness in our lives. Our successes are always explained post-facto by a combination of skills, courage or some other precisely defined reason. We do not make provision for the role of randomness. We're more benign (or I'd say ready) in cases of failure where luck (or the lack of it) is often presented as the nemesis. But overall, as a species, we are more geared towards determinism vs. randomness
While this thesis by itself might not warrant a book, what makes for an interesting weekend of reading is the author's style and his short detours into various angles & subtleties on the subject.
I for one, found it highly enlightening. I must admit that probability has been a blind spot for me owing to a fortnight of typhoid I suffered at age 17 when the subject was taught in school (and here again I might be overstating the causality - it might be just random or I was genuinely incapable of understanding 'the likelihood that something is the case or will happen'). After reading Fooled by Randomness however, I can vouch for an increase in my understanding. That, in itself, is reason enough to pick it up.
If probability doesn't interest you, perhaps the fact that Taleb opens the door to Karl Popper and his theory of empirical falsifiability, is sufficient inducement. Don't be alarmed at the big words - what it basically means is that any theory is true only as long as it is not falsified. There are no absolute truths, only lies waiting to be found out. While it makes intuitive sense, seeing how knowledge has progressed through trial and error in the past - what is alarming is that we do not make provision for this 'knowledge impermanence' in our education system.
Taleb also takes you down a winding road of biases induced by our lack of understanding of probability. This makes for one of the most stimulating sections of the book. I remember hearing about conditional probability in school but I can admit understanding it only now.
You might ask - What is the benefit of knowing that randomness plays a larger role in our life than we think? Should it lead to fatalism? skepticism at people's success? general disregard for skills and hard work? Taleb makes a clear distinction that there are areas more subject to randomness than others. And he also offers suggestions on what to do in the face of randomness - most of them applicable to a trader but some such as stoicism and dignity, though 'soft', are applicable to anyone.
In the end, the value of a book is random - it's more about the reader and less about the author. I loved Fooled by Randomness. A weekend of mirth, a week of introspection and the falsification of some long harbored 'truths' made it an absolute treasure for me.
ps: I should thank Shiv for suggesting this book in response to my perennial complaints about typhoid robbing me of probability :-)
Sunday, August 26, 2007
How the Swiss do it
If you have a weekend to spare and want to read a contrarion point of view on investing, The Zurich Axioms fits the bill
There are 12 major axioms and 16 minor ones in the book. Max Gunther purportedly distills these axioms from his observations from Swiss bankers - those magnificently rich people who have made it in a landlocked, mineral-poor, small country.
Frankly, there are only 3 or at most 4 insightful 'axioms'. The others seem to just make up the numbers. Max Gunther does try his best to debunk oft quoted advice from wealth management experts - Diversify, Invest for the long term, Don't sell too early, Technical analysis etc. He also trashes experts who are ubiquitous nowadays on TV and newspapers spewing advice on anything and everything by quoting trends, correlations and causality.
His writing style is conversational and this is admirable on a subject such as investing where P&L statements, Balance sheets and ratios are de rigueur.
If you've read Peter Lynch or you get your hands on Fundsupermart's quarterly magazine or have had a chance to read any other book on stocks or investing, this is a good 2nd book. Don't read it as your introduction into investing.
Friday, August 24, 2007
Unshackling India: Barriers - Part 3
In the last 2 posts in this series, I had talked about Illiteracy and Poor public health as two factors preventing our abundant human resources from being economically productive. But for even those who are able and ready, poor infrastructure either prevents or enervates their initiative.
A country's Infrastructure can be assessed broadly on 4 vectors. These vectors are either inputs for production or enablers of trade. The 4 is not an exhaustive list but is indicative of the strength of a country's infrastructure and is also instructive in where the malaise lies. The 4 are:
A country's Infrastructure can be assessed broadly on 4 vectors. These vectors are either inputs for production or enablers of trade. The 4 is not an exhaustive list but is indicative of the strength of a country's infrastructure and is also instructive in where the malaise lies. The 4 are:
Power, Transport, Ports, Communication.
I'm not covering Sanitation here - not because it isn't important, but because it'll complicate the discussion. We'll come back to it in a later post when talking about solutions for Poor public health.
Let's look at Power. India's production of electricity is only 630 billion kwh. If you switch on a 100 watt electricity bulb for 10 hours, that's 1 kwh. Light it for 15 hours and you spend 1.5kwh - you get the math, right? For a country of 1.13 billion people, this means, we can afford only 558kwh per year per person!! That is 1.5kwh per day! Each person can basically light one electric bulb for 15 hours at this rate!
China produces 2500 billion kwh or 1900 kwh per person - each person not only gets a bulb, but a fan and some extra power to convert some iron into steel. The US produces 3980 billion kwh or 13,220 per person. While at some level, my 'Green' conscience tells me that's a bit too high with all its Greenhouse effects, a level between China and US should be our aim.
The list of pernicious effects of lack of power is too long to enumerate. Suffice to say that a nation cannot aim to convert it's abundant natural resources into usable products, if it lacks energy.
Next is Transport. Roads, Rails, Air and Waterways being primary modes of moving goods and people. In Roads and Rails, it's interesting to note that the issue is not of penetration but of quality and reliability.
India has 1.6 million km of metalled roads, 0.54 km per sq. km of land. That compares favorably with China (0.16) and US (0.45). Net, roads cover more land in India than in China or the US. The problem is in the definition. What passes off as metalled road in India would count as dirt track in a 1st world country. The fact that China has 34 thousand km and US has 75 thousand km of expressways and India has almost none reveals the real issue (yes, yes, we have the Mumbai-Pune expressway - but isn't it pathetic that we have a single stretch of 200km road to banner in 2.9million sq km country?). India's roads are simply not efficient or reliable enough to move goods and people at a speed that can be an enabler to economic growth.
On railways the story is similar. India has 21m of rail track per sq. km. China has 8 and US has 25m. So far, so good. But the average speed achieved on Indian tracks is 25km/h. If someone has data on China and US, please send it in, but it's safe to assume that it won't be below 25km/h.
A peek into airways and waterways is quite revealing. China has 13m of waterways per sq km. India has only 5 and the US has 4.5m. Waterways are the one of the most energy efficient manner of transportation and are a natural link from ports to the hinterland. We do not have a pan-Indian river system to ride on.
In airport density, the US is far ahead with 15000 airports - 1600 per 1000 sq km. India has 115 per 1000sqkm and China has 52 per 1000sqkm. Airports, historically have been better movers of people than goods so in a sense, it might not be the most important factor of transportation.
So here is the picture on Transport. China has ridden on it's extensive waterways and expressways. The US has its rail and road network. India has none. It's roads are dilapidated, railways is unreliable & slow and waterways, non existent.
The 3rd Infrastructure factor is Ports. In a way, they are an extension of our transport system. Too few and too tardy. Our interaction with the outer world doesn't make for good copy. The 12 Indian ports have 233 berths with a throughput of 465 million tonnes of cargo. Shanghai, by itself, has a throughput of 537 million tonnes!
The average turnaround time at Indian ports is 4 days. This is an improvement over the 8 days we used to take in the 1990's. Singapore has a turnover time of, guess what.....12 hours!!!! Even other ports have a turnaround time of 1 day on an average.
What this means is that goods take 3-4 days to reach our sea ports from our factories and farms. They then sit idle for 4 days at our ports. 8 days of inventory carrying costs on a GDP of $922 billion is humungus!!
Last on the list is communications. For all the talk of a mobile phone revolution in India, we have just 150 million mobile phone users. China has 450, the US has 220 million translating to a teledensity of 34% and 73% respectively as compared to India's 13%. 'We have some distance to cover' might be the understatement of the year!
This makes for a grim prognosis. 1/3rd of our population is illiterate. Out of the remaining 700million, almost 1/3rd is out of work either due to disease or malnutrition. What the able and educated can produce is constrained by lack of power. What is produced either takes inordinately long to reach the market due to poor transport or loses half its value in the time it takes to get there. Markets are inefficient because of poor communication facilities.
These are the hard problems. The one's backed by numbers and data. There are a lot of soft problems too - terrorism, separatism, fanaticism, rich-poor divide, lack of civic sense, lack of service culture etc etc. Most of these are symptoms of an underlying gap between haves and have nots. And that gap is driven by the 3 underlying factors we've talked about - access to quality education, quality health and infrastructure.
I wanted to emphasize the primacy of these 3 underlying factors because in discussions with friends, I have discerned various starting and ending points on this topic. For some, the rich-poor divide is the biggest issue we need to solve. For others, it is the Muslims vs. Hindus divide. Some call it the urban - rural divide. Still others, say that separatism is the biggest threat to the country. I think these are profiling variables not discriminating ones. If you group all those who are illiterate and unhealthy, there will be a pre-ponderance of Muslims, of rural folks and of poor people. The have nots will be the ones asking for a separate state - the perception that being master of your destiny is the panacea to all their ills. But you can't do anything about someone being a Muslim, Rural or Poor apart from conversion, migration and donation - and I bet, those 3 would never solve the underlying problem.
Net, if we can tackle illiteracy, poor health and infrastructure in an equitable manner, I believe we will cover a fair distance in achieving our goal of becoming the #1 economic power in the world.
Over the next few posts, I'll try to explore solutions to these issues.
In closing, I wanted to bring up a soft point - the Lack of a clearly articulated Indian identity. It is a symptom, the causes of which can be seen scattered over illiteracy, curriculum, history and politics. I do not want to vitiate this forum by delving into it now but later, when talking of solutions, we cannot but help pay due import to this issue.
Thursday, August 23, 2007
Good, thought provoking book but not gospel truth
Management leads by example - this is true not only for leaders but also for the discipline of Management Education. Case studies and examples are the best way to introduce and clarify concepts. Clayton Christensen uses cases from the Disk Drive industry and the Mechanical Excavator industry to answer the question he poses in the beginning - Why do great firms fail?
His answer - The Innovator's dilemma: The very capabilities that make firms great are the cause of its downfall when faced with disruptive innovation. He also peppers the book with interesting examples from other industries such as PCs, cars, retailing.
Another instructive section is his explanation of capabilities - the factors that affect what a firm can and cannot do. He breaks up capabilities into Resources, Processes and Values - something that managers at the helm can use at different stages of a firm's life cycle.
It's in the solution to the dilemma that I feel Prof. Christensen does not do enough. This is actually symptomatic of a general trend I see in popular management books where solutions are presented as a straightforward inverse of the issue. If current capabilities inhibit success in disruptive innovation, create a separate organization with new capabilities. If small opportunities do not fulfill the growth needs of a large company, embed the innovation in a small organization. If it's hard to estimate market size, plan to fail.
Reality is not that simple. Failure at great firms in the face of disruptive innovation is either because they did not 'see it coming' or executed incorrectly. His thesis presents solutions for the 2nd cause, not for the 1st.
In essence this problem from the perspective of the incumbent is that of balancing current business with future growth. Stated this way, it's not an either-or. A successful firm needs to do both - deliver current business and plan for future growth. Some of the future growth will come from sustaining innovation (for which the current organization is appropriate) but an unknown part can come from disruptive innovation. A separate, self-sustaining group, preferable under the CEO's watch is better positioned.
Prof. Christensen also does not cover the issue from the perspective of an entrant - the book would have been more complete if he had. For an entrant, the challenge is to find a consumer segment that wants his innovation. I feel that instead of stating and re-iterating the innovator's dilemma (which after a point starts to grate), he could have spent some effort in laying out a conceptual framework to help an entrant. Here, I find the concept of Points of Difference and Points of Parity from other management schools to be useful.
And even if you don't have a disruptive innovation but want to enter a market, there are important pointers in the book - though they are not laid out as such. Find a market where the existing products are over-designed for some people. Create an innovation that achieves Point of Parity for current important attributes and Point of Difference on a new attribute. Windows compatible software that is not as evolved as Microsoft Office, meets the basic word processing, computation and presentation needs of a significant part of the population but is significantly cheaper is a case in point. And to subvert the bundling problem, it can be downloaded.
The power of the book for a practising manager is that it asks an important question. And through its examples provides a fertile ground for you to introspect and ruminate over your experiences. The real value of the book resides in these connections that your introspection reveals.
Monday, August 20, 2007
Chak De India - commentary
- I thought of writing a commentary after chancing upon a reference on wikipedia. It said that the film opened to lukewarm response in India and UK and some critics have trashed the movie as being slow.
I loved the movie. I absolutely did. And it's hard to explain why; I always struggle to explain emotions. Contrary to opinions that persistently asking 'why' leads you to the root cause, I believe emotions can't be explained. One, because the very method employed to elicit an explanation causes an error - Claimed data is claimed. It undergoes rational processing that renders the response incorrect. Second, why explain something that is supposed to be felt. Try explaining a fragrance - they do that when explaining perfumes and it makes for a very poor alternative to some good ol' sniffing.
Anyways, coming back to the movie........
Chak De India uses hockey as the sub text to bring into relief 3 issues that afflict India sport - 1) Individualism, 2) Regionalism and 3) Using sports as a means to an end. More importantly, it offers a poignant commentary on the fickleness of Indian public where public adulation is driven by the most recent performance. Lastly, it directs one's eye to the disproportionate focus of India sport to that genteel pastime - cricket, at the expense of all else.
The movie is commendable for its bravery and instructive in its business acumen. Using 11 unknown faces, no leading heroine, no exhibition of flesh and no song-dance sequence is brave. Ensuring there was Shahrukh's face to pull crowds in, was smart.....else this might have ended being a late bloomer or a DVD wonder.
See the movie if you haven't. It'll 'stick' with you.................
ps: Tomorrow, I'll pick up the threads of the 'Unshackling India' series. Apologies for the longish hiatus.
Thursday, August 16, 2007
The End of Poverty - Review
Who is it for?
Anyone interested in developmental economics. Anyone interested in poverty. Anyone interested in getting a helicopter view of what has happened in the economies of Bolivia, Poland, Russia, China, India and Africa.
Who is it not for?
Footsoldiers, innovators or entrepreneurs looking for execution ideas that'll make a clear, verifiable and real difference in the lives of the poor. Wide-eyed arm chair philosophers looking for a magic bullet, an insightful idea that will make good conversation over coffee/beer.
What is it?
A planner's experience-laden fiscal plan on how much is needed to eradicate poverty and how to fund that investment. Peppered with anecdotes and events that affected economic transformations in countries we are interested in. Topped with exhortations and appeals to our moral, intellectual and human side. With a fair sprinkling of bashing of US war & tax policy.
What is it not?
An action plan to eradicate poverty. A repository of execution ideas that can be implemented by individuals, entrepreneurs or private enterprise.
Is it any good? Yes
Does it lay out the problem, spell out the investment needed to solve it and give ideas on how to finance it? Yes.
Does it delve into what to do with that investment? A little bit.
Does it give you a good understanding of development economics? Yes.
Does it make for an interesting read, was it educative? Yes, most certainly
Is this book the magic bullet that will eradicate poverty? Maybe not.
Does it talk about how to execute? No.
Does it go down to the trenches, dirty your hands and talk of real people. No.
Does it go down to the trenches, dirty your hands and talk of real people. No.
Overall, a good read. I might add to this review after I've read the 'White Man's Burden'.
Wednesday, August 08, 2007
Unshackling India: Barriers - Part 2
The last post covered Education and the lack of quality (skill and stance) and reach as a barrier to achieving India's goal of becoming #1 GDP country in the world. In this post, I'll explore Health as the 2nd big barrier.
Health is both a cause and effect of extreme poverty. And it's a very complex problem. Let me state the magnitude of the problem first.
25% of Indians do not have access to basic healthcare. Sometimes percentages numb our senses since they hide the people they represent. What this 25% means is that around 270 million Indians, when they fall ill, do nothing but wait. They wait for divine intervention or human fortitude or quacks or ultimately for...... death. These are people in remote villages, slums or shantytowns next to big construction projects - you can see them living each day on borrowed time.
With infant mortality of 34.6 per 1000 live births, 1 million infants die every year - laying waste 9 months of pre-natal investment. This is no small number. It means half of New Zealand dies as infants in India every year!!
For every 1000 adults of working age, 4 die of infectious diseases such as TB, Diarrhoea, AIDS and Malaria. That is 4.5 million preventable deaths a year!! More than the population of Singapore! Another 2 million die of nutrition related diseases. It's ironic that Singapore is trying to get up to a population of 6.5 million by 2010 to sustain its economic growth and we lose the same number every year to deaths that are preventable via sanitation, immunization and nutrition.
India has 25% of the world's population of blind people. Isn't that blinding infuriating?? 1/4th of world's blind people are in India!! - a direct result of Vit A deficiency and poor cataract treatment outreach.
With such vast swathes of people rendered economically ineffective, its not hard to see why India has not been able to harness its abundant human resources - a lot of them are just not fit to work!
The first 370 years of the last 4 centuries made the pernicious factors of illiteracy, poor health and poor infrastructure intertwine into a massive ballast that keeps pulling the Indian ship down.
In my 1st post, I mentioned that in addition to Education and Health, the 3rd barrier is that we have not created conditions that allow our human capital to contribute. This primarily alludes to lack of Infrastructure but extends into 2 other vectors - 1) Governance and 2) Inefficiencies (corruption, intermediaries)
In my next post, I would explore this 3rd barrier in some detail
Health is both a cause and effect of extreme poverty. And it's a very complex problem. Let me state the magnitude of the problem first.
25% of Indians do not have access to basic healthcare. Sometimes percentages numb our senses since they hide the people they represent. What this 25% means is that around 270 million Indians, when they fall ill, do nothing but wait. They wait for divine intervention or human fortitude or quacks or ultimately for...... death. These are people in remote villages, slums or shantytowns next to big construction projects - you can see them living each day on borrowed time.
With infant mortality of 34.6 per 1000 live births, 1 million infants die every year - laying waste 9 months of pre-natal investment. This is no small number. It means half of New Zealand dies as infants in India every year!!
For every 1000 adults of working age, 4 die of infectious diseases such as TB, Diarrhoea, AIDS and Malaria. That is 4.5 million preventable deaths a year!! More than the population of Singapore! Another 2 million die of nutrition related diseases. It's ironic that Singapore is trying to get up to a population of 6.5 million by 2010 to sustain its economic growth and we lose the same number every year to deaths that are preventable via sanitation, immunization and nutrition.
India has 25% of the world's population of blind people. Isn't that blinding infuriating?? 1/4th of world's blind people are in India!! - a direct result of Vit A deficiency and poor cataract treatment outreach.
With such vast swathes of people rendered economically ineffective, its not hard to see why India has not been able to harness its abundant human resources - a lot of them are just not fit to work!
What are the causes of this abysmal state of healthcare in India?
First is Poverty. Poor people just do not have the economic surplus to invest in nutrition, prevention and treatment.
Second is Budgetary failure. Indian Govt. has a) not allocated enough to fulfill its promise of universal healthcare and b) whatever is allocated doesn't reach the needy due to corruption and inefficiencies.
Third, is Lack of infrastructure. This happens on two fronts - 1) Lack of roads and refrigeration impedes reach of medication and vaccines, 2) Lack of sanitation compounds spread of infections.
Fourth is Lack of education. This again, works on two fronts - 1) The affected don't know and therefore don't take simple actions that can prevent a lot of infectious and nutritional diseases and 2) there are not enough doctors and health workers for our population.
Interestingly, most of the above are interlinked. And that's not surprising. Over the past 407 years (1600 - 2007) while the Western World went through its political, industrial and technological revolutions, India's GDP was stagnant for the first 340 years and grew at a meagre 3% for the next 30. Only in 1970 did we break into a more respectable 5-6% growth rate behind the Green revolution and from 1991, started galloping at 7%.The first 370 years of the last 4 centuries made the pernicious factors of illiteracy, poor health and poor infrastructure intertwine into a massive ballast that keeps pulling the Indian ship down.
In my 1st post, I mentioned that in addition to Education and Health, the 3rd barrier is that we have not created conditions that allow our human capital to contribute. This primarily alludes to lack of Infrastructure but extends into 2 other vectors - 1) Governance and 2) Inefficiencies (corruption, intermediaries)
In my next post, I would explore this 3rd barrier in some detail
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