Recounting History

I've often thought that accounts of events should always be written in 2 versions.

One, the immediate, visceral, raw account of things as they happen. Capturing it fresh prevents rationalization and perspective from setting in and spoiling the true experience. It's like plucking fruits off a tree and munching on them atop the branches. The writer is just a medium in this case. Transmission loss is minimal and the reader can afford to transport herself to the event. The only biases induced are that of the writer's eyes - different people focus on different elements of a canvas - and of his language - not everyone can write like Michael Palin.

Second, the thought through account which finds meaning, pattern and motives in events through a retrospective lens. This allows the author to add his bit. It's like eating a fruit jam where the processing, sugar and preservatives enhance (or distort) the original taste of the fruit. The writer is not just a medium but also the filter. He chooses what to amplify, what to ignore, what to dissect, what to connect. The only truth is the event - no one can dispute it's occurrence - but your account will bear little resemblance to another account of the same event.

Both versions are important. The difference is that of emphasis. One is the truth and little else. The other a reflection of the author's intellect with the event just providing the spring board. The reader is better off in either case as long as she realizes the difference and digests accordingly.

Parting Notes for a small island

From an island of order to a subcontinent of chaos is a long flight. As I countdown the last 24 hours of my stay in Singapore, I'm overwhelmed by nostalgia.

Singapore has changed from the one I saw when we first moved here in 2001. The most conspicuous is the choice in terms of cab companies. From the duopoly of Comfort and Tibs, now there are more than my brain can remember. The second is the construction boom. From the pits of the housing market in 2000, everywhere you see cranes and workers building nests for the 6.5 million residents expected in the next 8 years & the millions who'll flock to the IRs. The skyline has changed too - the Singapore flyer being a nice rotund addition to the skyscrapers at Shenton Way. The profile of people on the street is different. There are a lot more white collar Indians on Orchard Road now. The airport is bigger, more varied - with the imaginatively named Budget Terminal already operational and T3 coming up. Singapore Airlines has its own budget airlines. The North East railway line is on, making it easier to get to Mustafa & Clarke Quay. The 2nd Link is operational, offering an alternative to the clogged Woodlands checkpoint. Lee Hsien Loong is the Prime Minister of Singapore, relieving Goh Chok from his interim role. The NKF scandal is a scar on the public memory.

In spite of the change, Singapore in it's basic fabric is still the same - watchful, controlled, small. The PAP still rules unchallenged. The Strait Times still toes the official line. Dissenters are often prosecuted under spurious 'defamation' lawsuits. You still can't chew gum. Public debate is still shaped by ERP, GST and COE rates. HDB's are still the housing mainstay in spite of the proliferation of high-end condos. Chinese rule, Malays are still 2nd best. Racism still exists - the White man gets away with a lot and the brown man runs up against prejudices.

The constancy is not all regressive. Singapore still retains it's ability to look ahead - if not in political terms, at least in economic development terms. Whether it's the ability of SGX to emerge as a regional exchange of some weight, or Singapore port's attempt to become a maritime hub or the EDB's efforts in developing Singapore's bio-technology industry - they are all a part of Singapore's continual effort to prepare for the future. This is one lesson other nations and even companies should learn.

India offers many contrasts. I will not dwell on them. I'm excited by it's possibilities and am steeling myself for the challenges. I'm promising myself not to be affected by the inevitable delays & tardiness in services. And I will not make the mistake of comparing the two countries. I've signed up for a roller coaster ride atop the world's most exciting juggernaut and I'm going to enjoy it.

Adieu Singapore, Namaste India!

Watching my brain

I've been wondering these past days at how human beings believe their world is deterministic when it is much more random. How we ascribe motives and skills to retrospective evaluation of success when it could just be a matter of chance. How such explanations lull us into a false sense of 'expertise'. How we see patterns, not because they are there, but because our brain craves for order. How we want to believe we make rational decision when in reality we are a slave of our emotions. How our brain is playing with us.

It's tough to separate yourself from your brain and watch how it fools you. But if you can - and I don't profess any particular skill at this - it makes for a fascinating spectacle. Remember your last meeting with a stranger? At the first glimpse, your brain starts trying to slot her. Tall, thin, fair - everything goes into creating an 'expected' personality. Audio and tactile cues add on and 3 minutes into the interaction, you either like the person, dislike her or couldn't care less. Anything post that is rationalization or amplitude variation on the already chosen scale.

By definition, each one of us is unique. And we are exposed to unique and almost infinite stimuli everyday. But our brain filters and fits. It has to, else it will be paralysed in processing everything.

Language, by itself, is an elaborate approximation tool to help us come to grips with the massive variation in emotion, thought and sight in this world. Our brain fits our unique sensation to an approximate available word : its 'fit' process working all the time!

How we make decisions is another example. If we were to make perfectly rational decisions, we wouldn't even be able to decide which side of the bed to get up from. That's where reflex, heuristics and 'rules of thumb' come in play. And almost always, we are driven by our emotions rather than our thinking. I know of a friend who had a 5 point scale on 10 attributes when he was meeting girls in the elaborate charade of arranged marriage. He just couldn't decide. Not only were there more combinations than he could handle, there were some 'things' (I suspect these were emotions) which were not on his list! Finally, after meeting some 20 girls, he gave up and married someone far from all points and attributes. They are a happy couple now.

Religion, especially monotheistic also pander to the brain's need for order. The notion that there is an absolute truth and one right path to reach it, is highly attractive. It takes away the ambiguity and decision making effort embedded in polytheism.

This is a fascinating journey. Realising that we are governed by our emotions and not our rationality is intriguing. Recognizing instances where our brain's need for order and fit, overrides a pursuit for what's right is amusing. And seeing that there is a lot more randomness driving events around us is comforting as it halts us in our endeavor to ascribe motives and causes to everything.

You might be wondering where I'm going with this. There are 3 implications of such thoughts in my mind:

One, recognizing that our brain will force us into stereotypes, profiling and prejudices is the first step to maintain a secular, non-judgemental outlook towards life, people and events.

Second, recognizing that there is a lot more randomness around us and resisting the urge to accord causality to coincidental events, will ensure that we do not fall into the trap of believing that we have 'THE ANSWER'. This belief can prevent us from being open to alternative scenarios, leading to rigidity.

Third, it impacts how we teach our children. Currently, knowledge is imparted in axioms and absolute truths while a better approach would be to present it as the 'current best'. The history of science reveals how knowledge itself progressed through trial and error vs. an unrelenting pursuit towards an absolute truth.

I'm no expert on this matter - far from it. I don't even know whether what I wrote is true. All I know is that this is an alternative reality. And all I commit to, is to learn more. Not to find the ultimate truth but to uncover lies that are accepted wisdom today.

Essential Reading for Managers

As a manager you don't do much yourself. You rely on your people to perform in order to deliver your organization's goals. first, break all the rules can help you excel in this endeavor.

It's a provocatively titled book but its message is simple and intuitive - Recruit for Talent and Manage by Exception. It prepares a new manager against common pitfalls in managing people and offers an old hand a chance for reflection.

For me, the highlights of this book were in 2 areas -

One, the guidance to recruit for talent. In this, the authors are guided by the belief that underlying talents are unalterable for adults. Therefore, a careful calibration of the role and the talents required for it, should precede any recruitment. And the recruitment itself should be guided more by talent than by experience or grades. Skills and knowledge can be taught, not talent.

Two, the guidance to measure for outcomes, not for process. In P&G, we used to call this accomplishment vs. activity. Focusing on outcomes is liberating for both the manager and the employee since it allows for the individuality of the employee in achieving the outcome yet keeps him focused on what's ultimately important for the organization.

There were also some great nuggets on 'How to manage around a weakness' and 'Spending time with your best people'.

The power of reading ultimately is in the opportunity to reflect and resolve. This book forced me to think about each of the 9 people I have managed till date and ponder over my errors of omission and commission. I caught myself nodding when I recalled instances similar to experiences of great managers. I caught myself wincing when mistakes of average managers looked dangerously familiar. I calibrated myself on the 4 keys of great managers and mentally matched my people to the talent descriptions. More importantly, I made some resolutions towards the future.

If you are going to manage people, this book is recommended reading. If you're already managing people, this book is doubly useful - a kind of course corrector - since you can relate better to the examples.

Lastly, a word about its title - it's a niggle but one that grates on my nerves. The title is unnecessary sensationalist. It is misleading. The book's not as much about breaking rules of management as it is about finding what makes great managers excel. Breaking rules is not the guiding force for great managers; it's the belief that talent is unalterable and people are different. (Mis)guided by this (probably) marketing spin on the underlying thesis, the authors spend a lot of time in quoting prevailing behaviors of average managers as resident Management wisdom . This creates a sense of artificial tension when it could just be a comparison between average managers and great managers. There are no real rules that we need to break here!

I mention this only to manage the reader's expectation. Do not expect a revolutionary, new theory of managing people. Do not expect great revelations about how existing Management paradigms are all wrong. Instead, be prepared for common sense, brass tracks wisdom gleaned from great managers around the world.

Don't let the dissonance between content and cover detract from the fact that this great reading for any manager.

A wake up call

An Inconvenient Truth is aptly titled.

If you wonder what's all the fuss about or worse, if you've never heard the term 'Global Warming', please watch this DVD.

If you're one of those fence sitters who are not sure whether it really is an issue, whether it's just cyclical weather phenomenon or whether the Greens are making a mountain out of a mole hill, this might help you understand the reason behind your ambivalence.

If you know that global warming is an issue, but haven't figured out what to do, this DVD will not only raise a sense of urgency but in closing, will provide some clues on taking action.

I believe that this DVD should be mandatory watching for everyone. Because the topic under discussion is not some woolly headed 'self-help' mantra, or an esoteric scientific theory - it's the fundamental question of our survival as a species, or more accurately, the survival of Planet Earth as we know it.

There are 2 areas where Al Gore and David Guggenheim do a great job. One, Gore adds romance and drama to the issue by running a sub text of his personal journey to becoming an advocate against global warming. This sub text runs through his childhood, his failed bid for presidency and the loss of his sister to lung cancer (made poignant by the fact that his dad ran a tobacco farm). This not only reveals and clarifies his motive for the viewer but also makes for a empathetic connection.

Second, it makes the science and data behind the case against Global Warming accessible to the common man. The data on temperatures back to 650,000 years from Antarctic drilling and CO2 emissions by-country are quite eye opening. The graphics on ocean currents and their distribution of heat energy is simple and instructive. The DVD packs such data, graphics and Gore's glib talking style in a potent combination to make it easy for the layman to understand the issue at hand.

Discussions on Global Warming are typically split into 2 camps - the Skeptics who wonder whether the effort required is really worth it, whether we aren't exaggerating the impact and the Radicals who are against anything that exhales CO2, who take the matter to a stifling extreme. Gore, though clearly leftist and green in hue, is a bit more balanced in his presentation of the issue and his stance on the solutions.

This DVD should spur you into action. It will force you to think. Pick it up & watch it. You owe it your future.

Neither foolish nor random

If you haven't read Fooled by Randomness, make it a priority. It has to rank as one of my Top 5 non-fiction.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb has an acerbic wit, sharp intellect and sound knowledge. Staying true to the book's argument, I wouldn't ascribe causality between these traits and the book's contents. However, while reading, I often caught myself wondering about the size of brain behind the weight of words.

The fundamental thesis presented in the book is that we consistently underrate and understate the role of luck and randomness in our lives. Our successes are always explained post-facto by a combination of skills, courage or some other precisely defined reason. We do not make provision for the role of randomness. We're more benign (or I'd say ready) in cases of failure where luck (or the lack of it) is often presented as the nemesis. But overall, as a species, we are more geared towards determinism vs. randomness

While this thesis by itself might not warrant a book, what makes for an interesting weekend of reading is the author's style and his short detours into various angles & subtleties on the subject.

I for one, found it highly enlightening. I must admit that probability has been a blind spot for me owing to a fortnight of typhoid I suffered at age 17 when the subject was taught in school (and here again I might be overstating the causality - it might be just random or I was genuinely incapable of understanding 'the likelihood that something is the case or will happen'). After reading Fooled by Randomness however, I can vouch for an increase in my understanding. That, in itself, is reason enough to pick it up.

If probability doesn't interest you, perhaps the fact that Taleb opens the door to Karl Popper and his theory of empirical falsifiability, is sufficient inducement. Don't be alarmed at the big words - what it basically means is that any theory is true only as long as it is not falsified. There are no absolute truths, only lies waiting to be found out. While it makes intuitive sense, seeing how knowledge has progressed through trial and error in the past - what is alarming is that we do not make provision for this 'knowledge impermanence' in our education system.

Taleb also takes you down a winding road of biases induced by our lack of understanding of probability. This makes for one of the most stimulating sections of the book. I remember hearing about conditional probability in school but I can admit understanding it only now.

You might ask - What is the benefit of knowing that randomness plays a larger role in our life than we think? Should it lead to fatalism? skepticism at people's success? general disregard for skills and hard work? Taleb makes a clear distinction that there are areas more subject to randomness than others. And he also offers suggestions on what to do in the face of randomness - most of them applicable to a trader but some such as stoicism and dignity, though 'soft', are applicable to anyone.

In the end, the value of a book is random - it's more about the reader and less about the author. I loved Fooled by Randomness. A weekend of mirth, a week of introspection and the falsification of some long harbored 'truths' made it an absolute treasure for me.

ps: I should thank Shiv for suggesting this book in response to my perennial complaints about typhoid robbing me of probability :-)